International Journal of Engineering and Technology

Developing a prediction relationship for total (i.e. within-year plus over-year) storage capacity of reservoir systems is beneficial because it can be used as an alternative to the analysis of reservoirs during designing stage and gives an opportunity to planner to examine and compare different cases in a fraction of time required for complete analysis where detailed analysis is not necessary. Existing relationships for storage capacity are mostly capable of estimating over-year storage capacity and total storage capacity can be obtained through relationships for adjusting over-year capacity and there is no independent relationship to estimate total storage capacity. Moreover these relationships do not involve vulnerability performance criterion and are not verified for Malaysia Rivers. In this study two different reservoirs in Southern part of Peninsular Malaysia, Melaka and Muar, are analyzed through a Monte Carlo simulation approach involving performance metrics. Subsequently the storage capacity results of the simulation are compared with those of the well-known existing equations. It is observed that existing models may not predict total capacity appropriately for Malaysian reservoirs. Consequently, applying the simulation results, two separate regression equations are developed to model total storage capacity of study reservoirs employing time based reliability and vulnerability performance measures.